Dollar—yen Jan. 1996)
Medium Term Outlook.
The end of the four- month old consolidation phase indicates the start of the uptrend towards the 120 long term objective. Overall pressure to the top side may trigger a break above the 1995 peak of 104.70 followed by an acceleration to 106.60/65 then to the medium term target area of 111/113.60 Dips will find now support at 103, 101,50.
Recommendation
Hold longs, add on dips to 103/ 101.50, stop/reverse below 100.50. Add to longs on a break above 104.70, looking for 105.50, then to 106.60/65 area. Cover all longs on rallies to this target.
USD/JPY technical commentary (06—11 Mar. 1996)
06 Mar. 96 USD/JPY is entrenched in a consolidation range above good support at 104.85. Abreak above 105.30 may trigger an upward move towards 105.85/106. A deeper retracement to 104.65/40 is a possibility with the loss of 104.85.07 Mar. 96 Break above 105.30 has prompted upward move. A test of the 105.85/106 band is likely, triggering a rally to the significant pivotal area of 106.45/60. An eventual break will confirm a rally to 106.95, then to 107.55.
08 Mar. 96 USD/JPY remained pinned down within a tight consolidation range and failed to sustain upside move as far as the 105.85/106 area. Pivotal support is intact at 104.85. A break above 105.85 may confirm a resumption of the uptrend towards 106.45/60.
11 Mar. 96 USD/JPY has balked on initial test of the 106.40/80 band. A sharp pullback into the previous range was triggered by dense resistance. Pivotal short term support in the 105.05/104.85 band needs to hold to prevent a sell-off towards 103.65 pressure is building for a resumption of the up-trend towards 111/113 target.
