Has the starting rise in the Yen finally run its course?
Doubts rise over yen hausse in Feb. 96
In the space of 4 1/2 years the Yen has appreciated more than 60% against the US dollar. It is starting to look like this is coming to an end. This is mainly because the Japanese economy is having trouble keeping up with the international economic upswing and maintaining its competitiveness with the strong Yen.
Exports suffer
The rise in the Yen has dealt a blow to Japan's export orientated economy. Partial relief to exporters has come from rationalisation and moving production to cheaper countries. Even the famous trade surplus has shown signs that the tide is turning. Although the surplus reached 121 bn USD, this was just 0.8% higher than 1993. Motor vehicle production, the vanguard
of Japan's economic might, decreased by 6%. to 10.55 mio vehicles. Car production suffered most, falling by 8%.
Monetary policy
Rumours also surfaced that Japanese interest rates will fall. At 1.75% for the Discount rate and 3% for the Prime rate, they are by far the lowest in any of the industrialised nations. Altogether more positive is the consumer price inflation, which rose by 0.2%. and the producers index which dropped by 1.3% Unemolovment. at 2.9%. is low in comoarison to other countries, even if the figures tend to be massaged.
Dollar -Yen: Recovery or Correction Gul. 94)
The USD recovery is impressive on a short term basis. A major trendline support level at 97.00 last month is forging ahead through many levels of resistance. The dollar buyers were attracted by the rally effort through an old trendline off the 1993/94 lows at 100.40—100.50. The long term technical analysis still views USA strength as corrective to the long bear market. A large coiling down trend pattern since 1988 is still evident on the monthly chart. The dollar tested and bounced off the low end of the formation at 97.00. The upper boundary at 106.50—106.90 should be watched. A monthly close over here points to the end to the bear market and the start of a major USD base. An uptrend cannot be expected until the early 1994 high at 113.65 is removed. The weekly chart also reveals the large coiling pattern. Near the 103.90—104.40 area a falling 40 week moving average trend indicator can be seen. The market condition could be
Vocabulary
to deal a blow — íàíåñòè óäàð tide is turning — ïîëîæåíèå ìåíÿåòñÿ bn (billion) — ìèëëèàðä mio (million) — ìèëëèîí
S3:
to surface — âîçíèêàòü by far — çíà÷èòåëüíî
ju: consumer price — ïîòðåáèòåëüñêàÿ öåíà
ju: producers index — èíäåêñ ïðîìûøëåííûõ öåí
î: to massage — ìàññèðîâàòü, îáðàáàòûâàòü
ë
upside — ïîâûøàòåëüíîå äâèæåíèå öåíû
î: target — ïëàíîâàÿ, îæèäàåìàÿ öåíà
å exceptable — ñîñòàâëÿþùèé èñêëþ÷åíèå
test — ïðèáëèæåíèå öåíû ê òî÷êå ñîïðîòèâëåíèÿ (ïîääåðæêè
01
coil — ñïèðàëü
au to bounce off — îòñêàêèâàòü
au boundary — ãðàíèöà
ou slope — íàêëîí,ñêàò
ai sideways — öèêë ñ ãîðèçîíòàëüíûì äâèæåíèåì öåí
ë
recovery — ïîäúåì ðûíî÷íîé êîíúþíêòóðû
î: to forge — ìåäëåííî äâèãàòüñÿ âïåðåä
àå rally — ïîâûøåíèå
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