called a corrective situation within a bear market if price is rising toward a still falling trend indicator. The weekly oscillator is also rising from a bearish level.
The short-term picture for dollar-yen should stay mildly
favorable for the USD as long as values hold over a support zone set by a rising 40-day moving average at 100.30 and the rising trendline off the July lost at 98.80—98.70. Dips should be supported until that area is broken. Near-term upside targets are 102.10—20 and 103.20. These values represent 62 to 75% retracements to the June/July downleg in the dollar. If a larger bear phase is still in progress, those are exceptable retracement
parameters for bear market corrections. Closing action under 98.70 should indicate the start of a new, and probably final, downleg for the dollar against the yen. The target for a new downleg will be 95.50-94.50. Secondary technical aspects are somewhat mixed. Market sentiment indicators are neutral.
There are no important cycles working for price right now. The seasonal tendancy for the yen versus the dollar is to rally from August into October. If new topping signs show in the dollar as the seasonals, one more low later this fall is possible.
ou
close
— êóðñ (öåíà) ïðè çàêðûòèè òîðãîâ
ou
low
— íèçêîå çíà÷åíèå(öåíû)
ai
high
— âûñîêîå çíà÷åíèå(öåíû)
ý
bottom
— ñàìûé íèçêèé óðîâåíü
fisher
— ëîâåö
e
correction
— äâèæåíèå öåíû â íàïðàâëåíèè, îáðàòíîì òðåíäó(êîððåêöèÿ)
ai
to 'highlight
— âûñâå÷èâàòü
Compresension Questions
1. How much has the yen appreciated against the US dollar for 4'/^ years?2. Why is this appreciation coming to an end?
3. What was the result of the yen rise?
4. What was the trade surplus?
5. What do rumours say about Japanese interest rates?
6. Is unemployment in Japan high or low?
Exercises
Ex. 1. Put question to the underlined words.Ex. 2. Read and translate the text.
Ex. 3. Using the chart and the various technical studies and trendlines describe USD/DEM price movements from
May 93 to Jan 94 and USD/JPY from 85 to 93. Ex. 4. Translate the dialogue from English into Russian in writing and from Russian into English orally.
